Minutes U.S. closing #EmploymentIndicator #RateSuddenly #NVIDIA #Copper #Event

5 Minutes U.S. closing

#EmploymentIndicator #RateSuddenly #NVIDIA #Copper #Event

NASDAQ 17,1733(-0.23%)
10-year U.S. bond interest rate 4.439% (+3.42%)
Dollar Index 104.913p (+0.78%) NDF 1,378 KRW (+11 KRW)

The stock market closed lower on Friday last week as employment data came in hotter than expected. In May, non-agricultural new employment in the U.S. rose by 2.72 million, far above the expected 190,000. Rather, the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. In any case, employment was a surprise, and the government bond market panicked as interest rates rose sharply. The 10-year U.S. bond rate jumped 15 basis points from the previous day. The possibility of a July cut went up, and the possibility of a September cut fell from the 60% range to the 40% range.

Contrary to the headline, the insinuation allows for a slightly different interpretation. Household-provided data showed a decrease in May jobs to -40.8 million. While the household survey showed a decrease in jobs, the corporate survey showed an increase in the number of foreign-born workers, resulting in an increase in overall jobs. Illegal immigrants who were deported after COVID-19 are filling jobs in the U.S. Although new employment has increased significantly, that's also why the May unemployment data based on the household survey rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. The quality of employment is also falling a lot. Part-time jobs increased by +286 million, while full-time jobs decreased by -62.5 million. The key is how the interpretation of this will be shown as a dot plot at the June FOMC.

There are a lot of important events in the market this week. First, there is Apple's developer meeting. Apple's WWDC will be held from June 10th to 14th. Related stocks are expected to move due to the announcement of new AI and changes in iPhone's form factor. And on the 10th, Nvidia will do a 10-1 face split. We have to pay attention to whether the lowered price will once again ignite the stock price or act as a cell-on. If Nvidia moves again, there will be a positive response from the semiconductor industry. Copper prices have fallen a lot from their highs. At the same time, the share prices of related power facility companies have also been greatly adjusted. The representative company is ETN. Stocks such as HD Hyundai Electronics and LG ELEC in Korea also fell a lot. Whether power facility companies, a key sector of AI infrastructure investment, rebound seems important in terms of changes in leading stocks.

There are many big events this week, such as the CPI announcement and the FOMC in June. The CPI in May is expected to be 3.4% (year-on-year) and 0.1% (month-on-month), slightly lower than in April. There will be no change in FOMC interest rates in June, but what the dot plot will look like is important.

It's a week with a variety of events scheduled. I hope it goes well.